Riddle Gold Rush

Handicapping sprint races at the track

Most horseplayers believe that the races are more difficult route from the disadvantage of sprints. I have a dissenting opinion. If the majority were correct, then we could not see a disparity between the percentages of winning favorites for each type of event race.In would expect to see the percentage of winning favorites for sprint races higher than that of the routes. This is not the case.

A little over 70% of all races are sprints. A sprint race is less than a mile and no more than a lap. Most races are run at 6 furlongs, but can be as long as seven and a half furlongs.

Conventional wisdom holds that a quick switch, a horse that you can set a fast pace during the first quarter mile and take the initiative while saving ground on the rail, has a clear advantage over supplementation. But what happens when the race is full of fast switches and it is most often? The early leaders frustrate the efforts of others and start making backups in the final stretch. They will also create traffic problems for them and quickly run out of real estate to correct the error.

Well, what if our speed is lagging behind the rest of the herd? This presents a problem more serious than a horse who has not been close to the leaders or hugged the rail will not have enough energy to move to the other while running straight. Even if the horse is able to save land in the railway, which will meet traffic problems as well, as the leaders refuse to open a hole for him. This "traffic problems" can be easily seen in the lists of comments like "locked", "beaten" by "control" and "forced wide."

However, the true test of a sprinter temple is indeed in the long final stretch quarter-mile. It is very important, however, function effectively until that time. He must stalk, and not far behind, the leaders of the first, and never for a moment fall out of contention.

Look at each line of action where the horse ran six furlongs. First eliminate any horse that was getting more than four lengths off the pace in the call ½ mile to any of his last three races of six Furlong. This frees us from the fence. Second, eliminate any horse that was in the lead for the first quarter mile, but lost half their final three races of six Furlong. This frees us from the speedball and Dueler, whose two running styles are subject to almost the same problems than the fence. Finally, eliminate any horse that has not finished first or second in six stages.

With a best finish of the horse (first or second place) six stages, calculate the final time of one quarter of a mile for each of the remaining horses. If the horse was in the middle of it, this is relatively simple. Convert time final seconds, subtract half a mile long and has the final quarter mile time.

In races where the horse has not resulted in half, add a fifth second for each length the horse was out of rhythm at the time of half a mile and you have the time, the horse half a mile. The work is in the fastest horse with the final time of one quarter of a mile.

Delaware Park race eight on November 1, 2004, was a fantastic example of the effectiveness of this angle. Eight horses enrolled in this assignment of six Furlong, but only three managed to qualify as far as computing time quarter-mile final.

NAME FIN. ¼ MI.TIME post probability 11/01/04 FINAL TIME

Gotta Rush: 7.2 1 26

Golden Thread: 25 3 / 5 striped striped

Carly'ssilvercharm: 26 2 / 5 5-2 2nd

For example: In the last trickle of gold rush six Furlong ran: 22 1 / 5,: 45 3 / 5 and 1:11 1 / 5. As it happened, it was in the middle and won the race. The conversion of 1:11 1 / 5 to 71 1 / 5 and subtracting: 45 3 / 5 final time we have a quarter-mile in: 25 Gold 3/5.Trickle had established the best final quarter-mile, but she scratched. Carly'ssilvercharm became entangled in a duel through the media (we do not want to see) and was caught in the stretch Gotta Rush. Missile Bay, a horse that removed because I had never raced at six stages came late to finish third as the 9-5 favorite. My exacta box returned 7 for a net gain of 7.

Remember, most races are won by horses that are able to stalk the leaders, but do not make their big move up that the last two stages of the race.

About the Author

Mark Ripple is a veteran stockbroker and horseplayer who wrote the book “Handicapping the Wall Street Way.” This book shows how securities investment theories can be incorporated into horse wagering and is an excellent work for novice to intermediate horseplayers, with concepts easily understood and put into practice right away. To purchase a copy of the book, visit www.uberhorse.com

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